Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.629695 2.151586 2.858733 3.912534 5.489122 7.839840e+00 1.177336e+01
2025-01-12 1.011101 1.504157 2.285755 3.688206 6.319961 1.147864e+01 2.373538e+01
2025-01-19 0.658971 1.070930 1.807169 3.343445 6.858422 1.581885e+01 4.708041e+01
2025-01-26 0.485815 0.856127 1.597037 3.393372 8.471560 2.611031e+01 1.308177e+02
2025-02-02 0.390053 0.743316 1.533988 3.777971 11.841656 5.345085e+01 6.397988e+02
2025-02-09 0.325877 0.668462 1.523106 4.373196 17.763064 1.335479e+02 9.144011e+03
2025-02-16 0.264122 0.574082 1.418081 4.646672 24.105796 3.236354e+02 1.937982e+06
2025-02-23 0.208407 0.472532 1.240169 4.507280 28.786477 7.011092e+02 NaN
2025-03-02 0.164442 0.385171 1.060227 4.192264 32.086102 1.460466e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 0.140818 0.344168 1.009669 4.487333 45.020695 6.936982e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.121208 0.307483 0.955071 4.734123 62.628932 6.460408e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 0.106872 0.281450 0.926994 5.163010 94.560591 1.797622e+07 NaN
2025-03-30 0.093463 0.255198 0.890673 5.593420 148.839547 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.078607 0.219214 0.791886 5.353658 183.388681 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.065655 0.185736 0.686986 4.890836 202.409057 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.057820 0.167630 0.645895 5.039785 300.058083 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.053039 0.158845 0.646765 5.737602 611.931899 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.049498 0.153461 0.663517 6.812727 1625.999740 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.044974 0.142776 0.643715 7.350084 3604.941823 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.039831 0.128065 0.590666 7.155845 5619.245389 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034998 0.113340 0.529578 6.639908 7052.227944 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.032353 0.106956 0.518815 7.197767 21997.938228 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.029876 0.100563 0.504247 7.672977 85792.198420 NaN NaN